MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b3077454788f8738f1bc7912f4b47febc111a4c82d0243a2eb268b39c32313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Over | 49c | 31,412$15,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,377.55 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 15,948$8,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,933.75 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 12,710$6,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,398.96 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 10,873$5,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,293.04 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 50c | 5,909$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.62 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 4,622$2,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.73 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 48c | 4,037$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.6 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 51c | 3,873$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.74 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Over | 51c | 3,806$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.2 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 3,174$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 2,279$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.33 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 1,991$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,525$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 65c | 1,406$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.19 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 50c | 1,354$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.15 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 51c | 1,256$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.29 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 52c | 971.2$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.18 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 758.85$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.37 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 541.51$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 504.56$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 460.47$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.63 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 56c | 399.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 346.24$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 327.14$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 312$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 36c | 306.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 51c | 296.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 42c | 290.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.51 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 51c | 285.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 51c | 284.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 47c | 263.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 52c | 219.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 209.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Over | 49c | 198.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbf…5bd0backed Over | 49c | 176.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 171.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 50c | 170.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…39b4backed Under | 62c | 170.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Under | 63c | 155.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 152.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Over | 49c | 127.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 126.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 103.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 53c | 102.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 23c | 91.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Under | 62c | 85.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 75.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 73.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 15c | 69.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 40c | 64.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 51.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…d61fbacked Over | 48c | 45.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 47c | 43.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Under | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 28c | 38.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 53c | 34.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 38c | 32.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 61c | 31.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Over | 43c | 25.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 56c | 23.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 61c | 21.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 53c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 53c | 19.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 67c | 15.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.