Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Gaubas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b5f5a5c72be124c506ca23e659ae4df018986db16c43c9fe372a4a2d5e3b8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Gaubas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Gaubas | 47c | 2,788$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.75 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.89 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 574.04$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.8 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 550.08$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.54 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Gaubas | 47c | 499.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gaubas | 46c | 439.74$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.87 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 436.39$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.1 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 356.55$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…f951backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 315.43$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 297.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gaubas | 46c | 293.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb5…f531backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 253.63$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Auger-Aliassime | 49c | 189.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Gaubas | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 179.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 110.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Auger-Aliassime | 52c | 100.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…2669backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 75.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Gaubas | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Gaubas | 48c | 49.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Gaubas (+1.5)this page
- Gaubas vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Felix Auger-AliassimeFelix Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.