Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Mariano Navone vs Marcos Giron
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e0a3863ad01c2f05a39af3f2bb86b2b2508ff00c7bdfb39bf54db65e6f2422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gironof Navone, Giron
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Navone | 27c | 7,300$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.26 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Giron | 73c | 2,987$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.35 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Navone | 27c | 2,857$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…4622backed Navone | 53c | 2,583$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Giron | 47c | 2,435$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.23 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Giron | 70c | 2,272$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.07 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Giron | 70c | 1,653$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.18 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Giron | 74c | 1,570$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.41 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Giron | 72c | 1,404$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.12 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Giron | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Giron | 48c | 939.99$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.19 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Navone | 53c | 899.99$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Giron | 71c | 733.55$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.39 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Navone | 55c | 725$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.75 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Giron | 45c | 450$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Navone | 50c | 447$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Navone | 50c | 325.22$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Giron | 47c | 322.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.05 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…e1e8backed Navone | 65c | 292.11$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.84 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Giron | 79c | 275.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Giron | 73c | 273.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Navone | 50c | 242.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Giron | 45c | 222.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Giron | 64c | 222$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giron | 49c | 204.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Navone | 51c | 191.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Navone | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Giron | 43c | 175$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Giron | 45c | 164.75$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Navone | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Giron | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed Navone | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Giron | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Navone | 54c | 73.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Giron | 71c | 73.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Navone | 45c | 67.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Giron | 79c | 43.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Navone | 53c | 43.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Giron | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Giron | 47c | 25.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.