Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e41431ef6dbfba82babe52fb9d2a9a3e62fd4fb7301b83f9e4889f21f0ac65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 0c | 41,876$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 2,195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 6c | 550$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 75c | 278.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 6c | 275$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 269.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 24c | 240.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 222.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 28c | 218.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 198.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 73c | 170.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 148$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 76c | 129.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 36c | 129.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed No | 78c | 122.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 116.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 70c | 86.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 17c | 83.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 80.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 63.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 20c | 62.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 38c | 61.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 54.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 49.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…7985backed Yes | 24c | 48.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 46.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked Yes | 24c | 43.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 24c | 41.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 33.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…c42abacked No | 75c | 25.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 22.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 76c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 80c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.