Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ceb54781f07732779325c07cbe93375ed5346c49c19abb64356a3e091b567b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 292.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 283.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 212.39$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 38c | 210.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 184$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 167.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 164.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 75c | 153.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 153.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 141.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 126.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 29c | 112.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 31c | 111.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 103.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 74c | 98.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 76c | 96.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 76c | 96.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…ea85backed Yes | 44c | 94.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 78c | 94.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 93.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 27c | 93.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 91.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 84.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 64c | 82.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 75c | 72.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 72.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 70.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 28c | 69.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 28c | 68.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 30c | 66.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 62c | 64.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 27c | 64.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 26c | 61.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 30c | 60.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 59.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 26c | 56.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 34c | 56.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 28c | 50.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 47.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 23c | 46.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 26c | 45.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 61c | 43.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 29c | 40.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 73c | 39.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 76c | 33.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 74c | 33.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 65c | 31.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 72c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 68c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed No | 79c | 24.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 48c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 70c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 61c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 70c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.