Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x066d108cb6812c65d825bb77f197b3c50ca7a2b7ecbc41d24f9be58ec3efed24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 628.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 51c | 622.42$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 35c | 538.6$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.45 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 34c | 395.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 58c | 375.39$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 311.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 295.01$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 61c | 294.95$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 47c | 208.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 200.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 67c | 163.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 77c | 151.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 75c | 149.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 68c | 130.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 127.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 126$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 119.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 42c | 111.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 44c | 107.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 47c | 98.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf052…0ce7backed Yes | 67c | 96.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 28c | 79.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 45c | 77.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 69.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 61c | 68.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 51c | 67.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 49c | 64.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 46c | 61.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 46c | 61.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 60c | 61.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 46c | 61.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 52c | 60.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…7b38backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 59.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 39c | 59.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 41c | 57.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 67c | 51.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 67c | 50.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…de73backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 62c | 47.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 54c | 47.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 64c | 46.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 49c | 44.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…2f6cbacked No | 63c | 44.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 74c | 43.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 69c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 36c | 40.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 38.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 66c | 38.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 50c | 37.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 36.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…2f5cbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 55c | 34.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…52a5backed Yes | 37c | 34.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 76c | 34.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 41c | 33.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 52c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…960cbacked Yes | 74c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 56c | 31.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 30.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 57c | 29.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…c42abacked No | 56c | 29.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…935abacked Yes | 64c | 28.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 39c | 26.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 74c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed No | 60c | 25.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 67c | 25.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 48c | 24.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 54c | 23.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 45c | 23.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a24…84e1backed Yes | 65c | 22.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 65c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…72babacked Yes | 77c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 68c | 17.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 75c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.