Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e7e87995f0f6ed4fa5026a898e6d2961339dca23f7810fd2478a5633a98ece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Tiafoe | 35c | 4,918$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.1 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Sonego | 65c | 4,829$3,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,139.05 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Sonego | 65c | 2,421$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.14 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c65…41dcbacked Tiafoe | 35c | 825$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tiafoe | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…9d25backed Tiafoe | 37c | 299.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Tiafoe | 35c | 268.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Tiafoe | 35c | 267.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.11 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sonego | 63c | 113.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Tiafoe | 35c | 81.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 95 | 31.6%30 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Sonego | 21c | 58.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tiafoe | 79c | 57.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tiafoe | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Tiafoe | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ed…2799backed Tiafoe | 45c | 46.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Sonego | 55c | 46.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Tiafoe | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4f…7530backed Sonego | 63c | 37.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…1ddfbacked Tiafoe | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Completed Match: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances TiafoeYes won
- Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Tiafoe won
- Sonego vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.