Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e820707ba16b89d5abc73c0b2d61be2a00ef4250d5be2b09213ad460005fc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yellow Submarine | 7c | 6,002$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.54 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 5,138$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.4 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yellow Submarine | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 4,827$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.91 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yellow Submarine | 9c | 3,489$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 3,340$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yellow Submarine | 9c | 1,700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 1,514$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 8c | 1,428$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yellow Submarine | 7c | 1,200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa9…9f67backed Yellow Submarine | 7c | 1,059$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 958.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 808$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Yellow Submarine | 3c | 799.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 5c | 793.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 792$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…ba75backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 775.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…1ee8backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 576.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yellow Submarine | 11c | 552.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Yellow Submarine | 15c | 492.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yellow Submarine | 3c | 432.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Yellow Submarine | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 396.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yellow Submarine | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yellow Submarine | 5c | 274.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Yellow Submarine | 13c | 253.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yellow Submarine | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yellow Submarine | 6c | 247.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yellow Submarine | 4c | 243.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Yellow Submarine | 6c | 234.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 218.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed PARIVISION | 78c | 206.41$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yellow Submarine | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…bf70backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Yellow Submarine | 8c | 161.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yellow Submarine | 11c | 141.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked Yellow Submarine | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yellow Submarine | 15c | 116.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Yellow Submarine | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…c7bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yellow Submarine | 12c | 91.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yellow Submarine | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yellow Submarine | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…5e80backed PARIVISION | 79c | 16.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.