MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46f0d9ad3fd0b968a8b8b175b278d186126b27da189bb7a714829ca1c53c824d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6165…db3cbacked Athletics | 64c | 7,800$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 2,494$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 2,198$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics | 62c | 1,980$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.54 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletics | 61c | 1,567$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.97 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 1,500$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.5 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 995.26$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 803.91$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.41 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Athletics | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 62c | 394.18$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 257.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 171.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 164.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 75c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Athletics | 66c | 121.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Athletics | 62c | 106.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 72.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Athletics | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 65.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 61.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics | 62c | 51.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 50.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 44.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 42.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics | 73c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 27.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 27.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 26.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 26.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 71c | 26.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 62c | 20.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Athletics | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.