MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e3318b10bf06cd6587c04951b7a949da648402db64e6c29f3a5d12ae32662e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 2,555$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 53c | 1,793$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.46 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 1,528$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.96 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.98 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 1,068$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.14 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 779.99$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 661$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 49c | 610.58$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.09 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 359.19$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 325$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 69c | 289.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 289.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 244.74$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Over | 47c | 211.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 109$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 47c | 97.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed Under | 55c | 90.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 82.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 68.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 47c | 65.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 64.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 49.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 49.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 71c | 33.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 47c | 21.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 18.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.