Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46fd11183b609dcf00db2ecedda401b1995dfb97ac87b83566a529406b49c47b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 1,514$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 1,352$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.68 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 1,333$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 74c | 1,000$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.91 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 21c | 432.54$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.86 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 354.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 339.17$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 295.1$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 280.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 236.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 18c | 233$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 199.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.26 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 193$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 156.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 30c | 130.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 30c | 123.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 121.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 10c | 120.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 74c | 97.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 88.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 43c | 83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 74.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 31c | 73.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa8…e07abacked Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 70.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 70.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 67.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 65.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 33c | 64.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 64c | 54.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 49.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 40.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 45c | 37.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 34.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 72c | 28.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 20.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 18.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…b576backed No | 78c | 16.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 16.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.