Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a0619a2c9d1da861162ac46ef66e9b442eb903a3a2d188f8fb446540244d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 0c | 3,488$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 54c | 2,576$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.16 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 993.61$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 937.99$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 79c | 854.18$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 46c | 540.04$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 523.09$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 38c | 492.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 478.61$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 33c | 477.36$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 407.73$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 48c | 399.48$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 19c | 312$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.45 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 39c | 307.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 231.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 54c | 229.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 35c | 225.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 194.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 45c | 187.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 166.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 61c | 164.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 163.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 153.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 56c | 145.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 57c | 144.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 46c | 132.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 33c | 123.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 36c | 121.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 36c | 121.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 37c | 120.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 38c | 119.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 108.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 33c | 104.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 89.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 78.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 78.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 76.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 20c | 75.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 73.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa8…e07abacked Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 71.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…c2cbbacked Yes | 48c | 68.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked No | 46c | 56.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 65c | 56.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 70c | 55.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 42c | 55.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 53.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4d…90dfbacked Yes | 48c | 53.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 50.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…1790backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfe…0ea7backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 46.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 38c | 46.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 44.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 33c | 40.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 64c | 39.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 38.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 56c | 37.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 37.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…37aebacked No | 36c | 35.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed Yes | 65c | 35.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 32.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 31.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 52c | 30.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed No | 56c | 28.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 25.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 25.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9441backed No | 56c | 24.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 22.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.