Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4710fea1596b7462f95883c23fae9b87b496b2b859ed60b8eb57ace5f7017e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 329.43$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 291.22$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 277.93$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 246.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 31c | 238.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 29c | 235.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 210.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 207.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 35c | 160.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 142.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 127.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 29c | 123.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 104.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 28c | 93.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 88.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 84.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 76.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 72c | 75.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 64.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 59.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed Yes | 35c | 58.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 49.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 48.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 29c | 39.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 38.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 38.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 31.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 70c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 69c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 21.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…e947backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.