Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a57ef17cc69419bec9bf7f33731f0c96f933114fddb20ce1881e7186844128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 73c | 859.72$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.92 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 519.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 28c | 334.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 15c | 281.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.56 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 267.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 15c | 257.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.95 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 255.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 253.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 14c | 248.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 235.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 27c | 187.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 63c | 187.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 175$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 160.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 137.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 33c | 120.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 113.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 75c | 108.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 101.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 92.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 15c | 92.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 24c | 89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 19c | 84.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed No | 76c | 80.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked Yes | 19c | 77.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 16c | 70.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 31c | 47.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 36.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 79c | 34.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 40c | 29.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.