Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4712500b1925e126bda815a55b4a29a32508ef3303385f02f5a5056783fcd3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 2c | 2,017$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.66 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 17c | 437.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.47 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 22c | 299.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.26 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 14c | 230.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 6c | 229.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…a70ebacked Yes | 12c | 155$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +762.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…a53dbacked Yes | 11c | 142$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 79c | 87.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 28c | 84.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…75a0backed Yes | 17c | 69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +341.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 67c | 68.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401b…1e3bbacked Yes | 33c | 65.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…8b4fbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 77c | 47.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 50c | 37.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.