Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0381ea2b7824a12d22ab11cd676e1616c5f6b6b110badc2f845dde689a3e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 76c | 795.67$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.91 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 18c | 352.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.97 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 79c | 277.34$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.98 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed No | 77c | 254.46$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 48c | 212.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…de67backed Yes | 52c | 205$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 55c | 163.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 56c | 162.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4b28backed No | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 25c | 95.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 14c | 75.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 75c | 63.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 48c | 51.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3907…11f0backed No | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8620backed No | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…93afbacked No | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed No | 64c | 42.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec22…8524backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…dfbcbacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…2c2bbacked No | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…e52fbacked Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…b884backed No | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…a6e6backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…46c2backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…074bbacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…20bbbacked Yes | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…69cdbacked No | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…e04bbacked Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…fb75backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…1f8fbacked No | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…a791backed Yes | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…51c0backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…2ebabacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…ae20backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 68c | 29.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…ef74backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7bbbbacked Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59b…7849backed Yes | 63c | 25.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…1082backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b5…3de8backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…38d1backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…62d8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…4579backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…227bbacked Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.