Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a42c9efd1d7088d99b6f4a91cb90e3f30851b46835715e6715c088f98fe2935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 1,153$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 53c | 636.91$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 53c | 523.19$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 27c | 516.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 64c | 204.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 53c | 190.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…91b0backed No | 54c | 180$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…7494backed Yes | 46c | 173$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 37c | 96.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…f11dbacked No | 55c | 72.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a25…0deebacked No | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…0caebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…8b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…70eebacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf04…ae70backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…ff1ebacked Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…96e5backed Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d95…9a41backed Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 66c | 40.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…f522backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…6de7backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7912…fa94backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…2997backed No | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…1c3dbacked Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…78f0backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…7423backed No | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15f…6940backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…386abacked No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…a882backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…d700backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…d320backed No | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…f271backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef1…1451backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…f4bebacked No | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…57cbbacked No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…29d7backed Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d2…4573backed Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…ac2abacked No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…a61bbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…f6ffbacked No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…0a09backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965c…a955backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbb…3b43backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…0b8bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8729…6098backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…6bc0backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…f91dbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…43ecbacked No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…c5e2backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…97f0backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcb…dcf8backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…2c06backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…7684backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…1949backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a9…9b4ebacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…2c2bbacked Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3951backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54b…e678backed No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…1573backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…3722backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.