WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472f8d252805fe65fd4831ee090a0deee3b867212679a3708e948604eda2f598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 49c | 2,680$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.8 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Over | 51c | 2,680$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 50c | 2,600$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 2,055$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.64 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 1,335$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.22 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…6302backed Over | 54c | 662.96$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 28c | 503.74$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 481.28$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 428.23$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.12 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Over | 50c | 254$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -7.1wins | -0.31per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Over | 47c | 174.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 52c | 153.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Under | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.