WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd298f2f23165d94731b9f35b5426933467e9815b3be0451632240c40e9ee7ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.99 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.96 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 4,381$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.7 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…5bb2backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 2,785$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 2,300$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.88 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 1,088$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.29 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,059$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.07 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 885.35$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.79 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 862.29$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.15 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Las Vegas Aces | 67c | 828.37$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.54 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0508…6035backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 733.71$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.56 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 457$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 396.03$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.05 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 360.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 285.17$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 284.58$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Phoenix Mercury | 63c | 218.89$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…bcd3backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 211$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 205.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 204.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 189.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 182.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7df…7f82backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Phoenix Mercury | 29c | 175.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 172$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 156.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 154$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…ff1dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 70c | 149$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 132.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 130.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 106.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 106.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 100.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 99.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 95.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 89.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 88.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Phoenix Mercury | 36c | 75.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 75.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 57.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Phoenix Mercury | 19c | 55.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…d6cbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…b17cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 70c | 42.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 38.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Las Vegas Aces | 42c | 32.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 29.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 27.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.