WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e785176a71b5ed9609166fc48fac08aedb5d9277aabdba9364bbf1ae94bae19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 9,859$4,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,336.8 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 9,498$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.97 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…d5d0backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 7,345$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 5,417$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.17 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 2,243$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.2 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 2,094$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.01 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 893.03$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.31 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 852.28$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.95 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 840$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.4 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 745$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 726.75$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.07 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 502.74$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.45 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 323.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.23 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 300.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 258$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb2…97edbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 224.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 215.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…cfa1backed Phoenix Mercury | 72c | 178$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 148.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 141.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 129.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 105.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 93.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 88.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 86.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 71.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 71.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 71.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…f488backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 51.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 47.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 47.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 42.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 34.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 26.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 23.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Phoenix Mercury | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.