WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c703353c87631d7ad08fabff13c110e34c609b45e5800b6f16f502cf50e0ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 3,283$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…e298backed Over | 48c | 2,521$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 3c | 885.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 17c | 504.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 400.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…2de6backed Over | 45c | 386.82$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 41c | 211.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 54c | 201.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 186.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 179$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 75c | 175.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 62c | 158.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 37c | 99.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…08f0backed Over | 24c | 84.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 43c | 73.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 68.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 57.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 54c | 54.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 31c | 39.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…9c2fbacked Over | 49c | 36.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Under | 59c | 35.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 72c | 34.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 55c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5this page
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)Las Vegas Aces won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.