MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4755d63f9979036c02acfdba40df74a184e0550c8a8904cf129eee0e3fb6c29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,008 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 4,398$2,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.25 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 4,209$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.46 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Washington Nationals | 16c | 2,403$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.39 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…5052backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 2,368$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 1,330$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,319$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.89 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…5169backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 1,099$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 974.79$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 964$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 943.79$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.4 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 800.86$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.77 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…242dbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 658.04$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 642.15$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 629.47$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 594.74$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 568$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 537.59$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.56 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 439.03$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.09 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 421.97$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.89 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 373.71$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 338.55$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…bb7fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 272.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 235.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 228.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.34per pick | 53cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 200.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 191.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 158.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 155$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 142.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 137.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 136$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 129$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 119.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 99.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 90.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 65.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 56.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…4710backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 46.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 40.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 30.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 28.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 27.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 946 | 55.3%523 W · 423 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.