Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4785b648c022cb5af40c9dbcb5bda2e49751c971a3a0ecc7eee4a1dffe255ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 454.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 409.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 10c | 287.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 257.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 50c | 250.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 243.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…27cdbacked Yes | 22c | 201.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 188.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 168.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 153.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 141$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 131.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 68c | 128.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 123.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 122.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 103.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 102.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 98.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 88.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 61.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 59.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 19c | 57.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 55.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 53.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 52.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 23c | 46.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1a…4d5bbacked Yes | 56c | 44.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 40.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 37c | 34.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 33.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 79c | 32.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 28.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 23.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 79c | 22.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…75a5backed No | 66c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…92d1backed No | 80c | 19.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…48cfbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.