Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x847c6ca813aebe8cf98f3779cb567f4fc02a4f6e70d5f99c305bf5d4286f0d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 78c | 630.61$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 350.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 344.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 271.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed No | 47c | 257.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed Yes | 74c | 223.06$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 80c | 221.11$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 59c | 212.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 28c | 207.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 206.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…6c44backed No | 24c | 199.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked No | 44c | 190.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 171.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 162.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed No | 9c | 158.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 15c | 142$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 14c | 105.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 99.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 59c | 83.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked Yes | 66c | 81.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked No | 50c | 75.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 72.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 72.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 53c | 70.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 39c | 67.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 63.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 64c | 62.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 61.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 67c | 59.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 69c | 57.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 55.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 73c | 50.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0e…4ccfbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 46c | 48.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 45c | 48.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 65c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 42.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 41.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 77c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…4eeebacked Yes | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…6814backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 39c | 34.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…7a46backed No | 59c | 33.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f06…4ff6backed Yes | 64c | 33.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 42c | 32.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 30.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 37c | 28.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 78c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858f…b802backed No | 62c | 25.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4a91backed No | 59c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 78c | 22.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.