Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x478ce32ac45cffff6dd72631dbf8eab326d310d4b1fdb36a9b149106f72f568f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 23c | 2,153$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,885$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.8 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 1,852$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.94 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 992.04$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.73 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 71c | 937.75$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.47 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 30c | 642.67$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 428.86$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 311.2$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Yes | 29c | 224.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 75c | 146$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 142.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 27c | 117.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 26c | 76.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 74.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked Yes | 26c | 62.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa065…0877backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 21c | 61.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…55d0backed Yes | 41c | 49.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…e83dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…f0f4backed No | 70c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…de8abacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.