Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf38b56528a67d7482f2fe98ef237a1be76454d4bf6293efd4c1b122cb6be358a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 68c | 2,207$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.42 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 1,176$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.75 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 42c | 985.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 659.01$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.01 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 58c | 575.12$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.55 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3174backed Yes | 6c | 566.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 58c | 540.11$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.85 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 381.27$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 351.39$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 298.16$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…544dbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 73c | 271.05$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 16c | 205.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…698cbacked Yes | 12c | 180.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 63c | 153.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 68c | 149.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 23c | 144.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…8336backed Yes | 15c | 115.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 36c | 84.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…1583backed Yes | 25c | 68.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 68c | 63.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 374 | 59.1%221 W · 153 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed No | 66c | 56.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 63c | 51.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 63c | 51.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 63c | 36.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 67c | 36.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked Yes | 34c | 32.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 62c | 31.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Yes | 37c | 29.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked No | 68c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 63c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked No | 71c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 68c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a0…e54dbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.