Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab2c4d434f475ae20ab4e13139b4c316cf8b3d3fc3519b290fd8cf9436af7c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 60c | 5,636$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.39 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 54c | 4,839$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.57 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 42c | 1,810$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.31 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 63c | 1,601$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.7 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed No | 40c | 1,564$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,333$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked No | 39c | 897.44$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…4164backed No | 31c | 883.71$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 59c | 828.87$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.62 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 42c | 705.14$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.01 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 20c | 699.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 628.73$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 42c | 600.21$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 42c | 600.21$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 43c | 585.61$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 25c | 555$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 43c | 485.88$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 53c | 426.8$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.53 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Yes | 62c | 413.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 71c | 403$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 58c | 355.39$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.45 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 58c | 340.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 20c | 318.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 69c | 245.13$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 69c | 235.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.42 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 29c | 222.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 51c | 203.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 69c | 147$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 68c | 146.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 68c | 146.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 68c | 146.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…0cb2backed No | 39c | 136.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 33c | 126$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed No | 38c | 109.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…3a62backed Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 37c | 99.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 39c | 88.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 68c | 87.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 44c | 86.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes | 62c | 76.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 44c | 74.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 74.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 65c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 32c | 63.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 37c | 61.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 61c | 57.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 138 | 46.4%64 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…aa7abacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 38c | 46.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 33c | 44.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 59c | 37.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 65c | 33.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 51c | 25.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes | 65c | 25.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked No | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 44c | 23.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Yes | 56c | 18.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.