Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x479712cdf861e998774250bf8a6922178e637eab707ab159b1db0a433e5242aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Tundra Esports, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tundra Esports | 2c | 29,720$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.5 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Tundra Esports | 39c | 4,513$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.31 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…c4c8backed Tundra Esports | 1c | 3,559$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Falcons | 68c | 1,987$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Tundra Esports | 36c | 1,945$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 61c | 1,655$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.25 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 912$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.58 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 735.28$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.44 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Falcons | 79c | 727.38$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.49 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…f46dbacked Tundra Esports | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tundra Esports | 23c | 390.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Tundra Esports | 31c | 229.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 155$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Tundra Esports | 20c | 74.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Tundra Esports | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked Tundra Esports | 45c | 44.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Team Falcons | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fb…a485backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Falcons | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…3d9cbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Team Falcons | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO5)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 3 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.