Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f42cd35e784ef20637f330169456bfa4ffde0010871bed264b7b451d0f6381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Tundra Esports, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6c3…c4c8backed Tundra Esports | 0c | 8,058$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.99 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports | 30c | 2,735$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.06 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 35c | 2,524$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.15 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Falcons | 72c | 2,427$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.6 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Tundra Esports | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Tundra Esports | 24c | 1,413$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 23c | 1,400$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.47 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 23c | 1,326$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.78 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 38c | 1,063$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Team Falcons | 67c | 449.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…0fd8backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Tundra Esports | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Falcons | 69c | 145.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons | 66c | 52.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Team Falcons | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO5)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.