Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x030552adbfb6438c0acfa61310c5eb75cecc199a01989a2bdb4ca2206c814a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 68c | 6,942$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Over | 29c | 5,654$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,025.61 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Over | 38c | 2,483$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.02 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Over | 37c | 2,368$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.1 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 1,854$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 68c | 626.73$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.05 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 27c | 578$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.94 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Under | 70c | 431.75$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.16 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 73c | 400$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…e006backed Over | 52c | 358.91$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 226 | 63.3%143 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 71c | 352.14$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked Under | 80c | 350$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Over | 56c | 348.21$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Under | 51c | 321.06$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Under | 77c | 215.87$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 74c | 201$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…0fd8backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…05d6backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Under | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…ab87backed Under | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Under | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO5)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 3 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.