Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47a713a7bb525eba3a312fda57044f71c52870993526fd8a9ede380ba60f7f19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 6,911$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.06 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…d55dbacked Over | 26c | 326.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 75c | 226$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 75c | 216$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 23c | 51.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Over | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Over | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Under | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Under | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Under | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.