Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2c4bb840595b21e698efdedda773fa12f3a159f1751b06aba64bea0d8ded3f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 507.36$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.41 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 46c | 187$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 54c | 138.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 54c | 118$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Over | 47c | 97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 55c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 46c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Under | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Under | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Under | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 49c | 45.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 46c | 29.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Under | 54c | 26.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Bristol City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.