Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47b112be82fea9d4183ee5fff291e8f2eadeacdc89b878efc39828782ef8bf7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 2c | 420$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 230$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 12c | 200.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 195.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 78c | 187.16$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 76c | 175.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 146.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 130.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 108$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 65c | 101.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 17c | 94.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 14c | 92.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 73.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 42c | 70.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 50.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 52c | 47.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 45c | 34.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 29.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 73c | 28.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 42c | 27.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…1c0bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.