Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0fa936d6f41028f9b178f14e396a8a96820e7378a533ca9bb942d13b5428488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 1,375$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.26 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 636.39$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 542.9$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 398.65$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 34c | 288.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 282$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 212.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed Yes | 7c | 179.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 35c | 152.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 33c | 125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 38c | 121.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 118.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 33c | 107.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 104.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 101.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 86.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 73.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 40c | 70.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 67.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 50.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…685bbacked No | 60c | 43.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 41.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 30c | 40.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…c0e1backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 38.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 35.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 29c | 35.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 42c | 31.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…84bcbacked Yes | 42c | 30.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 68c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 26.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.