Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb29e3d6116ce2e73b664a77d4229d1801d51a854d1effd5af5a36ac4403237e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 960.2$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.29 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 405$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 288$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 266.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 263.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 5c | 236.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 223.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 21c | 174.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 129.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 125.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 10c | 121.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 112.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 101.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 84.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 81.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 77c | 78.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 35c | 71.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 63.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 25c | 47.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 24c | 44.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 44.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 23c | 44.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 76c | 38.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 35.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 28.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 28.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 72c | 24.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…0218backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…1a3cbacked No | 66c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 13.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.