Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c77cb2098c7cb5d9c21f7d8b5c6935e259458388221d84f894f299489b2824
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2402…48adbacked Yes | 19c | 4,918$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.63per pick | 9cpaid | +1,275.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 78c | 1,743$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.55 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked Yes | 76c | 535.3$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 286$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 25c | 268.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 40c | 161$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed Yes | 78c | 155.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…dd7bbacked Yes | 49c | 131.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 33c | 79.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 60c | 32.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $330-$335 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $320-$325 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $325-$330 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340-$345 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$305 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$350 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.