CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: Liquid vs. Aurora
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47dbd2b311c9e798f2fa58ce0df4b95f881b479e4622a5b94b87bcc708821958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Liquid, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacad…3a3abacked Liquid | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…dc88backed Liquid | 39c | 755$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…ed7abacked Liquid | 18c | 747$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…6437backed Aurora | 61c | 730$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…e090backed Aurora | 61c | 705$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Aurora | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked Aurora | 58c | 687.26$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.88 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 57c | 671.07$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.56 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…57bfbacked Aurora | 59c | 590$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…0ed3backed Liquid | 39c | 525$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…526abacked Liquid | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…dc69backed Aurora | 61c | 485$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked Liquid | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Aurora | 54c | 464.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.74 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…54c8backed Liquid | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Aurora | 60c | 360$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Aurora | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…a4b1backed Liquid | 43c | 320$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…1054backed Liquid | 39c | 320$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…536dbacked Liquid | 39c | 320$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Liquid | 21c | 316.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…7079backed Aurora | 61c | 295$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Liquid | 12c | 288$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…ec62backed Aurora | 61c | 285$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Liquid | 25c | 276.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…b313backed Aurora | 59c | 270$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…c408backed Aurora | 58c | 270$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…6d35backed Aurora | 61c | 270$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…208cbacked Liquid | 39c | 240$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Liquid | 36c | 212.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Liquid | 42c | 196.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Liquid | 25c | 193$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…7220backed Liquid | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…97a9backed Liquid | 39c | 165$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…160abacked Liquid | 39c | 155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Liquid | 41c | 145.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…a692backed Aurora | 61c | 145$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed Aurora | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…79d5backed Liquid | 43c | 112.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Liquid | 40c | 103.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Liquid | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7b…892dbacked Liquid | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Liquid | 40c | 85.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Aurora | 57c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 75c | 76.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Liquid | 43c | 73.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…982dbacked Aurora | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…fad0backed Aurora | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Liquid | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Liquid | 41c | 46.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Liquid | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Aurora | 74c | 42.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…a487backed Aurora | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…df31backed Aurora | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9d21backed Aurora | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Aurora | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…91ecbacked Aurora | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…bae9backed Aurora | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…93b3backed Aurora | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked Aurora | 59c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.