Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ee5251105bca6a41ed41b12c449bf90c41a974991ceb3914ff482e91330ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 31c | 1,330$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 333.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 256.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 11c | 248.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 201.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 187.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 176$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 161.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 154.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 143.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 68c | 142.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 138.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 14c | 131.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 131.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 114.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 39c | 109.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 27c | 96.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 83.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…0a9abacked Yes | 25c | 57.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 49.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 48.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 47.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 47.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 33c | 42.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 65c | 37.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 62c | 26.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 64c | 23.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 60c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 71c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…60ebbacked No | 64c | 19.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.