Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf059e84b776d079cef3842c109df3ef42cdfbee3da097ae0ba754724824f6ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 841.85$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.22 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 679.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 503.64$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 445.08$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.29 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 45c | 392.42$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed Yes | 61c | 369.93$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 313.24$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 11c | 286.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 252.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 242.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 46c | 215.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 206.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 56c | 203$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 55c | 202.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…b4c1backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 184.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 184$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 172.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 68c | 154.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 130.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…4520backed Yes | 75c | 120.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 18c | 91.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 63c | 89.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 76.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 76.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…e7b2backed Yes | 24c | 72.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 70.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 53c | 70.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 66.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 63.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 74c | 52.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 51.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 50.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 63c | 47.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 47c | 42.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 38.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 32.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 61c | 29.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 52c | 28.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 27.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 27.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 50c | 25.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 80c | 24.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…721bbacked Yes | 48c | 23.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 66c | 20.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 75c | 14.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…86dfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.