TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes49c841.85$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.2265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes22c679.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes31c503.64$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c445.08$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.294,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes45c392.42$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0443238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…7b51backed Yes61c369.93$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.972365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No76c313.24$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4789661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes11c286.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.111,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c252.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes14c242.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed No46c215.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3714236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No65c206.21$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2157038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes56c203$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3470741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked No55c202.19$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.631062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d55…b4c1backed Yes70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes24c184.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.041,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No31c184$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.265,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205225%13 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No48c172.19$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.246,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No68c154.41$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4111164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c142$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes34c130.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.725,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x786b…4520backed Yes75c120.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes18c91.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9142036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes63c89.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.211,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No57c76.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes55c76.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.561,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4089…e7b2backed Yes24c72.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c70.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.044,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes53c70.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.341030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No77c66.2$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.123,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c63.4$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.242,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Yes74c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.43138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…ba19backed No38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No49c59.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.471,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No23c57.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes51c56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6440739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.311,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No59c53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No41c53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0431050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes74c52.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.943246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No79c51.88$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No69c50.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.517744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.755,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No63c47.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea5…1de3backed Yes32c43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.764139%16 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes47c42.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0916116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No54c39.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No77c38.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.912,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes77c38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2633561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No42c34.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9620431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked Yes30c34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c32.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No79c32.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7546667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.84942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.752,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.843441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No61c29.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.634953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No52c28.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4422344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.181,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes41c27.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.529262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No48c27.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.343,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c27.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.089,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No74c25.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.688,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes50c25.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.793734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…8f82backed No59c24.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.974178%32 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed Yes80c24.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa52…721bbacked Yes48c23.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No76c20.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes66c20.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.422744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x943a…8234backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No77c19.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked No66c15.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3114954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes75c14.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.151,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc7…86dfbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5475%3 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick80cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.