TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x840a…63ccbacked Yes44c1,918$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.052540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes71c1,088$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.1965749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed No68c1,032$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.072962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c588.29$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.774,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No25c429.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes70c429.05$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.721,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes70c372.31$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes26c315.7$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.9973927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c285.09$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No34c257.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c256.42$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.725,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No75c240.21$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.072,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c200.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.524,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes56c200.18$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No35c187.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8888650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…1de3backed No76c168$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.724139%16 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c163.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.526,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No30c161.41$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.891,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No35c136.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.211,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes64c125.64$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.083748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c124.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes22c120.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.074,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed No38c117.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456045%27 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No75c83.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4117071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes18c83.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.051,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No75c82.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.911670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes63c79.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.911737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb460…6424backed Yes75c73.82$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.693053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes72c73.82$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8344757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes36c73.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No75c69.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6768645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed Yes79c68.74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1311565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No39c68.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c67.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.953,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes27c66.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5742036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No20c65.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.555,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.353,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c58.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c57.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes28c51.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.614954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No35c50.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.561,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4024434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No45c49.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.452,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80bb…6ddfbacked Yes73c48.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.121338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19bc…eae5backed No22c47.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.444520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9217…076abacked No37c42.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.592445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No79c41.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.221,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes25c40.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2666735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.224370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No41c38.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe1aa…7429backed Yes29c38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.829426.6%25 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed No42c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No36c31.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.292,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x786b…4520backed Yes64c31.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No65c30.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d8…a908backed No37c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No64c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No42c23.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c23.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.112,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ed…8809backed Yes65c22.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86659.1%39 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No49c22.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1632669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes70c21.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7747…fe40backed No60c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66560%39 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e04…67f4backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86668.2%45 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No75c17.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.446667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c16.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.449,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7f…7980backed No73c15.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No75c13.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.