Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4825afa3e1d9f73363a99c428f6d08d3bdde179194fc7d07f78e2e5b5ed7c386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 13c | 869$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 18c | 709.51$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 258.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 239.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 218.45$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 20c | 193.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 140.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 133$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 109.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 80c | 107.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…91cebacked No | 74c | 67.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 62.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 21c | 60.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 57.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Yes | 19c | 53.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 71c | 49.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 31c | 49.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 28c | 36.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 36.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 76c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.