Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48271aee2f2ebeb1db36db52f5971b3b3c9ca8627ee0884cb92bd534325a6568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 761.74$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 492.99$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 435.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 15c | 307.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 18c | 261.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.13 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 19c | 229.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 17c | 205.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.69 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 74c | 170.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 75c | 168.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 19c | 165.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 129.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 34c | 120.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 111.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 43c | 103.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 38c | 100.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 91.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 39c | 90.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 90.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 85.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 76.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 72.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 54c | 72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 17c | 69.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 66.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 42c | 66.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 59.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 57.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 56.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 51.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 49.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 48.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 69c | 46.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 45.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 65c | 44.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 47c | 38.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 38.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 34c | 30.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 73c | 30.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 79c | 29.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 76c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 25.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 48c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 25.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 80c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fc…4b70backed Yes | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked Yes | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…7659backed Yes | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 80c | 13.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.