College Football · resolved market
Louisiana vs. James Madison
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483595a86731c32b9d4920c8482c92a79ab5eec0573b78ab1f423ea4d460998a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof Louisiana, James Madison
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed James Madison | 62c | 5,926$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.75 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Louisiana | 12c | 4,167$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Louisiana | 40c | 3,719$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louisiana | 19c | 2,199$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.09 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…cd01backed Louisiana | 38c | 2,185$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Louisiana | 8c | 1,989$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Louisiana | 11c | 1,978$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.58 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Louisiana | 11c | 1,428$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Louisiana | 10c | 1,290$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed James Madison | 73c | 1,148$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.54 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c47…c146backed Louisiana | 13c | 991$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Louisiana | 11c | 902.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisiana | 12c | 826.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed James Madison | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Louisiana | 13c | 545$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Louisiana | 16c | 541$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…7d00backed Louisiana | 13c | 505$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Louisiana | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Louisiana | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…072abacked Louisiana | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…3f75backed Louisiana | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Louisiana | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Louisiana | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Louisiana | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…776abacked James Madison | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…4769backed Louisiana | 19c | 145.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Louisiana | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed James Madison | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Louisiana | 21c | 115.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…8adbbacked Louisiana | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Louisiana | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…a569backed Louisiana | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Louisiana | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Louisiana | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Louisiana | 12c | 98.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc28b…b8b2backed Louisiana | 23c | 96.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Louisiana | 26c | 61.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Louisiana | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed James Madison | 75c | 23.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed James Madison | 65c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisiana vs. James Madisonthis page
- Louisiana vs. James Madison: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: James Madison (-17.5)Louisiana won
- Spread: James Madison (-18.5)Louisiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.