Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x484d84c08c591c30f4b57c38f062805d5efcbfa493c03a22464c8777f19f4969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 494.26$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 360.32$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 217.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 207.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 169.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 164.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 75c | 147.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 78c | 143.01$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 138.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 36c | 130.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 110.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 61c | 106.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 64c | 95.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 75.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 72.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 53c | 72.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 35c | 69.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 66c | 69.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 64c | 63.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 61c | 59.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 55.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbf…1b94backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 36c | 40.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 38.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 32c | 37.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 53c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 42c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 69c | 35.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 46c | 33.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 37c | 27.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 40c | 26.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 42c | 24.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…6c30backed No | 65c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 60c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 19.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…de43backed No | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 16.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 66c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.