Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48629a70ab67cd04b851b1d8c8c413d5a147aa2d97b8f0b0e382dee15b977aad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 21c | 886.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.61 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 499.27$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 383.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 352.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 342.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 14c | 316.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 6c | 284.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 268.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 18c | 245.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 229.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 225.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 209.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 206.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 29c | 155.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 123.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 115.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 90.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 83.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 78.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 50.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 74c | 32.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed No | 77c | 19.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.