Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10e6dae47d1f15de32b6708b0c6c75de75597e2b2aae5f72d9ce1d0446cfe33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 626.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 43c | 468$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.41 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 427$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 56c | 358.97$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 44c | 323.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 313.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 54c | 267.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 203.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 203.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 150.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 144.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 70c | 142.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 136.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed Yes | 38c | 131$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 109.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 106.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 104.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 15c | 87.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 78.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 63c | 76.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 75.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 65.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 58.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 62c | 53.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 38c | 51.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 49.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 48.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 47.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 47.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 42.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 30.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 24.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 66c | 24.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 55c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.