TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,927 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs30c1,959$588 inLost-$588.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Houston Astros71c1,409$1,000 inWon+$408.7325066.4%166 W · 84 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs43c555.54$239 inLost-$238.7111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0078…0690backed Houston Astros57c538.42$307 inWon+$231.525038%19 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Houston Astros77c389.61$300 inWon+$89.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed Houston Astros56c300$168 inWon+$13217545.7%80 W · 95 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros79c274.7$216 inWon+$58.28,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs20c186$37 inLost-$37.28,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb8f…9166backed Chicago Cubs23c108.7$25 inLost-$255947.5%28 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Chicago Cubs37c100$37 inLost-$3763943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Houston Astros37c63.04$23 inWon+$39.9999624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs40c61$25 inLost-$24.576,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Chicago Cubs46c21.87$10 inLost-$10.0985949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.