MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcadd90b038d736fca859ec921f0be804955703fc114935af94a6c5b3329102c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 13,419$5,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,482.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 12,007$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 59c | 11,326$6,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,643.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 6,359$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 59c | 3,418$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.36 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Houston Astros | 59c | 3,206$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.12 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 18c | 2,072$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.69 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,689$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.93 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,677$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.67 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,185$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.28 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 19c | 1,136$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,098$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.66 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 60c | 1,050$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 60c | 1,037$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.02 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…0009backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,010$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed Houston Astros | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Houston Astros | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…d62cbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Houston Astros | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 881.46$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.58 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 800$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 662.87$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.15 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 589.21$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 273.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 270.44$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Houston Astros | 59c | 202.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Houston Astros | 61c | 158$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 9c | 134.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 61c | 128.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 117.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Houston Astros | 61c | 115.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Houston Astros | 60c | 76.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…da96backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Houston Astros | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…f950backed Houston Astros | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…4fe4backed Houston Astros | 61c | 40.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 61c | 40.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Houston Astros | 60c | 37.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 33.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 26.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 24.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Houston Astros | 60c | 23.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Houston Astros | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Houston Astros | 56c | 19.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…57f1backed Houston Astros | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.