World Politics · resolved market
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4881fe352ed30ecf3db3fc12352322abc34b03efa9246370d3d7abdf29475467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 16c | 1,618$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.23 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed No | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed Yes | 72c | 764.75$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 10c | 395.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 37c | 310.46$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 23c | 297.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f8…2d1dbacked No | 44c | 226.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 28c | 170.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…fd34backed No | 16c | 141.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…7bc3backed No | 18c | 127.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 70c | 113.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 72c | 97.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9f…fbfabacked No | 17c | 87.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…aaaabacked Yes | 50c | 85.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 48c | 76.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 40c | 62.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…5133backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 55.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…7a8abacked Yes | 69c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 67c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 62c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?this page
- Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.