Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4883290cad023414f1968cf4ffbee52399d4175c3d5c3ee2615e66a59d73bdbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 910.97$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.95 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 583.26$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 32c | 344.37$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 270.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 246.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 204.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 202.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 36c | 156.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 118.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 113.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 112.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 94.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 33c | 75.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 63.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 62.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed No | 21c | 57.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 36c | 56.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 52.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 49.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 48.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 43.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 43.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 65c | 43.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 39.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 35c | 39.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…1b02backed Yes | 64c | 35.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 34.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 58c | 34.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 75c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked No | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 74c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 63c | 20.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 63c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…7a98backed No | 77c | 17.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.